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As The Dollar Falls Inflation Rises

May 28, 2009
Bob Chapman
The International Forecaster
May 28, 2009

Americans may just be beginning to understand the US strategy regarding the credit crisis, but foreigners understand what they are up too. The US is creating a stealth default on its debt by continuing to issue massive amounts of money and credit and in the process devaluing the dollar. This, of course, is fraud, but other nations have defrauded the US for years by cheapening their currencies and subsidizing goods and services. China may be upset as others are, but they have totally subsidized their economy and they have been the worst offenders in cheapening their currency. What do they call their current $1.25 trillion effort to keep their growth above 8%? They have 30 million unemployed and frankly fear a revolution. Chinese policy was to sell goods to America, which was unable to pay for those goods. Their $2 trillion in US denominated assets will probably end up being worth $1 trillion and they knew that going in. They wanted the market and they’ll have to pay the price. US Treasury and Fed issuance is going to get worse not better – it’s going to be that way for sometime to come. No aggregates are going to be pulled from the system. If the US does that the financial system will collapse. There is going to be massive inflation and what China should be doing is dumping dollars by buying gold. They have not anticipated the fall in US stock and bond markets and the derivative bomb. American assets, including bonds, will get badly trashed. We wrote of all this in June of 2002, but no one was listening. We could not even envision the affects of mark-to-model and the worthless balance sheets of corporate America, particularly in the financial sector. Within four years and more likely in two to three years the US will default on treasury and Agency debt. That should take the dollar in USDX terms to 40. It is now just below 80. China obviously feels the yields offered on US paper on the long end are not worth the play. They have been buying bills instead in the short-term market that the Fed has to support. Today investors cannot conceive how bad this depression is going to get. Even the Bilderbergs see they cannot handle what is coming and want to reverse the process. Unfortunately it is too late for that. There has been no return since June of 2002. The Chinese knew 5 years ago they were screwed, but they kept on playing the game. They had to supply jobs or they might have had a revolution. The illuminist plan to bring China into WTO was a very bad choice. All the money the transnational conglomerates made will eventually be lost.

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